Dead Zone of the NFL Season Thread

[joemcrugby]

Jul 3, 2019 17:30:24 GMT -7 xenos said:

Jul 3, 2019 5:16:48 GMT -7 totallybolted said:

I thought it a bit lame that only 9 of 11 graduated. How do you have a ~20% failure rate at that small of a population.

Yeah that is weird.

Kinda weird, but with that small sample size you can get a lot of variance based on a couple of outliers.

[joemcrugby]

Chris Long is recently retired, but Howie’s boy is still on fire!!

[joemcrugby]

Baldy breaks down Derwin James:

[xenos]

Old article from 2017 but still interesting regarding how teams use analytics:

www.si.com/mmqb/2017/06/27/nfl-analytics-what-nfl-teams-use-pff-stats-llc-tendencies-player-tracking-injuries-chip-kelly

The NFL is getting closer. The MMQB spent a month discussing analytics with more than 40 team officials from across the league—coaches, executives, scouts and analytics people—and there are some hard conclusions that can be made on where the league is.

1. Most teams don’t shy away from analytics. In fact, more than one official was offended by the notion that their team would be called “old school”. When it comes to player acquisition (which is what Moneyball was based on), the average NFL team is using the data. It’s just that it is being used to generate boundaries rather than drive decisions. Teams want to know when they’re making exceptions on one player, and they want to know what they might be missing on another they may have otherwise dismissed.

2. On the coaching side, analytics are generally used to make staffs more efficient. There may only be time for quality-control coaches to break down four or five of an opponent’s games in the week they have leading into a particular game. And that, in the past, would lead to guesswork on tendencies and strengths and weaknesses. The data allows the quality-control guys, and staffs, to crosscheck against larger sample sizes.

3. The limits in those two areas are the number of games (16) and the variance in players’ assignments and situations that affect plays. That makes it more difficult to collect the amount of data necessary to make hard decisions.

4. Conversely, the value of the data in those areas is proven in that nearly the entire NFL has subscribed to Stats LLC and/or Pro Football Focus, and some rely on smaller services, like Pro Scout Inc., which is run by 64-year-old former Utah coach Mike Giddings.

5. There aren’t sure marks of analytics-friendly operations on game days (as there is in basketball, with teams that go for the “two-for-one” possession at the end of the quarter or half). But on the personnel side, you can see it in asset management, with teams that trade down in the draft to pad their margin for error, and use cap space creatively.

6. There is one strong consensus league-wide: Analytics data related to injury prevention, which straddles sports science and comes through player tracking, is useful and will only get better. The NFL is just scratching the surface with this technology, and the floodgates will truly open only when the league makes available all the Zebra data it’s been collecting. Another step here that’s expected to come eventually is in profiling the minds of players.

7. The Walsh/Belichick robot is not on the market. Yet.

[xenos]

Something that was brought up in my other link about PFF, but I do wonder if Collinsworth is exaggerating or not about this part, or if this is really happening now. Which if true is still pretty amazing to me since a lot of us, me included, deride PFF for their weird grading system.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/06/17/pro-football-focus-nfl-analytics-fmia-guest/

When I think back to those days, it’s pretty comical. Today, I could never read, watch or study all the data that I have available to me. In 2014, I bought controlling interest in Pro Football Focus. At the time we had 60 employees evaluating every player on every play of the NFL season. Now we have nearly 500 employees, providing data to 90 NFL and NCAA teams, multiple television networks and individuals who use it for private purposes. I won’t get into all the details, but if you are a data scientist, mathematician or IT specialist, and you love football, we are hiring.

PFF has already changed the way I think about building a team and play-calling. I can remember a time when everybody thought Andy Reid was crazy for passing 60% of the time. He doesn’t look so crazy now. I remember when running backs were thought to be the most valuable position; now they are considered the easiest to replace based on our WAR (wins above replacement) metric. I think it is fair to say that now very few NFL contracts are negotiated without PFF data being at the heart of the debate. The agent pitches all the positive data about the player, and the team is loaded with all the not so positive data. Some of those negotiating stories are pretty entertaining.

But as much as the data has changed broadcasting, it has changed the game of football even more. “Gut instincts” are no longer good enough. Decisions must be made based on the data. Every year at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, PFF meets with nearly every team. I always laugh when somebody starts telling me about “old school” coaches in the league. I won’t mention names, but some of the “old school” coaches have recently blown me away with their knowledge of the data.

I sat in on a meeting with a team that had seven data scientists, mathematicians and IT specialists from Harvard, Stanford and M.I.T. all in the room, and they were loaded with questions that would make your head spin. Luckily, I had the people in the room with the answers. Of course, there are teams that are not quite that sophisticated, and it is getting more and more difficult for them to compete. The data arms race is very real, and it is widening the gap between those who engage, and those who don’t.

[xenos]

Also from PFT, we get an inside look at the Colts with their GM Chris Ballard guest writing today. I wonder how TT's process works. How much is similar and how much is different?

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/08/chris-ballard-colts-scouting-draft-nfl-fmia-peter-king/

INDIANAPOLIS — I get asked all the time what it’s like to be the general manager of the Colts throughout the draft process, and what it’s like inside the room on draft night. The journey is a grind. It can be exhausting at times. But the hard work and dedication only confirms our confidence in the players we select during the draft.

No two teams in the NFL draft alike. No two teams scout the same way, or use exact traits and characteristics when they look for players. Working for three organizations—Chicago, Kansas City and Indianapolis—and working as an area scout, a pro scouting director, a player personnel director and a director of football operations before taking the GM job here, I’ve seen how all 32 teams evaluate and draft. In two decades in the scouting business, I’ve seen how mentors like former Bears GM Jerry Angelo did it, how my Chiefs bosses Andy Reid and John Dorsey do it, and how other friends and competitors at other teams do it.

You might be surprised in our process that there’s a former Green Beret involved; his unique interviewing techniques help us strip away the agent-speak and happy talk that surround so many players in the draft process. You might be surprised that we’ve borrowed something from the brain trust at Pixar called “The Room of Candor,” so honesty is the only policy in the draft discussions.

I never want to look back at any decision we’ve made and think we didn’t have the real, unvarnished facts on the table when we’ve made these important choices.

It’s obviously not possible to know for sure if we’ve had a good draft yet. But we do feel 100 percent confident in a player once they’ve made our board. We’re not always right, but when we put in the work, the many man-hours challenging each other in the draft room, getting to the heart of ‘who is this player?’ and a million other questions, combined with the tape and the analysis and getting opinions from the coaches, we can feel validated.

At the end of the day, the players have to earn their place on the team and we as an organization have a responsibility to develop the player. Once they’re with us, we feel we have everything in place to get them to their ceiling as long we’ve got the football character right. Why? Because players who have football character want to get better and can overcome adversity. They never let the ups and downs of this tough league get in the way of their improvements each and every day.

[totallybolted]

Just think. All we have is tape. The dollars invested in players is not taken lightly. They want to get it right.
The one thing though... if there is so much effort put into it with all the analytics and head shrinking going on, how come there are so many that do not make the cut?

[xenos]

Jul 8, 2019 20:55:30 GMT -7 totallybolted said:

Just think. All we have is tape. The dollars invested in players is not taken lightly. They want to get it right.
The one thing though... if there is so much effort put into it with all the analytics and head shrinking going on, how come there are so many that do not make the cut?

Still an inexact science

[sonorajim]

Jul 8, 2019 20:55:30 GMT -7 totallybolted said:

Just think. All we have is tape. The dollars invested in players is not taken lightly. They want to get it right.
The one thing though... if there is so much effort put into it with all the analytics and head shrinking going on, how come there are so many that do not make the cut?

Human element.

We aren't the same person every day. Circumstances change around and within us.

Apples & oranges.

They are drawing conclusions based on HS & college play, NFL combine results, analytics, etc.

None of which is playing for a specific NFL team vs their schedule in a specific coaching scheme.

It's an educated guess no matter how you cut it. There is still room for an intuitive human leader to use the data plus his own judgement.

[joemcrugby]

Jul 8, 2019 20:46:55 GMT -7 xenos said:

Also from PFT, we get an inside look at the Colts with their GM Chris Ballard guest writing today. I wonder how TT's process works. How much is similar and how much is different?

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/08/chris-ballard-colts-scouting-draft-nfl-fmia-peter-king/

INDIANAPOLIS — I get asked all the time what it’s like to be the general manager of the Colts throughout the draft process, and what it’s like inside the room on draft night. The journey is a grind. It can be exhausting at times. But the hard work and dedication only confirms our confidence in the players we select during the draft.

No two teams in the NFL draft alike. No two teams scout the same way, or use exact traits and characteristics when they look for players. Working for three organizations—Chicago, Kansas City and Indianapolis—and working as an area scout, a pro scouting director, a player personnel director and a director of football operations before taking the GM job here, I’ve seen how all 32 teams evaluate and draft. In two decades in the scouting business, I’ve seen how mentors like former Bears GM Jerry Angelo did it, how my Chiefs bosses Andy Reid and John Dorsey do it, and how other friends and competitors at other teams do it.

You might be surprised in our process that there’s a former Green Beret involved; his unique interviewing techniques help us strip away the agent-speak and happy talk that surround so many players in the draft process. You might be surprised that we’ve borrowed something from the brain trust at Pixar called “The Room of Candor,” so honesty is the only policy in the draft discussions.

I never want to look back at any decision we’ve made and think we didn’t have the real, unvarnished facts on the table when we’ve made these important choices.

It’s obviously not possible to know for sure if we’ve had a good draft yet. But we do feel 100 percent confident in a player once they’ve made our board. We’re not always right, but when we put in the work, the many man-hours challenging each other in the draft room, getting to the heart of ‘who is this player?’ and a million other questions, combined with the tape and the analysis and getting opinions from the coaches, we can feel validated.

At the end of the day, the players have to earn their place on the team and we as an organization have a responsibility to develop the player. Once they’re with us, we feel we have everything in place to get them to their ceiling as long we’ve got the football character right. Why? Because players who have football character want to get better and can overcome adversity. They never let the ups and downs of this tough league get in the way of their improvements each and every day.

I'm interested in hearing frozendisc's insight regarding this point in reference to personnel discussions at the NHL level.

To me, it seems to be a no-brainer if you really want to filter through everybody's most critical insights ala cables in the diplomatic / intelligence communities.

[totallybolted]

Jul 9, 2019 9:45:21 GMT -7 sonorajim said:

Jul 8, 2019 20:55:30 GMT -7 totallybolted said:

Just think. All we have is tape. The dollars invested in players is not taken lightly. They want to get it right.
The one thing though... if there is so much effort put into it with all the analytics and head shrinking going on, how come there are so many that do not make the cut?

Human element.

We aren't the same person every day. Circumstances change around and within us.

Apples & oranges.

They are drawing conclusions based on HS & college play, NFL combine results, analytics, etc.

None of which is playing for a specific NFL team vs their schedule in a specific coaching scheme.

It's an educated guess no matter how you cut it. There is still room for an intuitive human leader to use the data plus his own judgement.

My question was mostly rhetorical. I get there is no perfect way to judge. Its more of an insight that no matter how much they have put into it, there is still no sure thing.
The other thing is we bitch about pics we missed or took based on what WE know. Imagine the bitch they do when they figure out their pick was a bust despite the effort.

[joemcrugby]

[xenos]

Jul 9, 2019 11:41:37 GMT -7 totallybolted said:

Jul 9, 2019 9:45:21 GMT -7 sonorajim said:

Human element.

We aren't the same person every day. Circumstances change around and within us.

Apples & oranges.

They are drawing conclusions based on HS & college play, NFL combine results, analytics, etc.

None of which is playing for a specific NFL team vs their schedule in a specific coaching scheme.

It's an educated guess no matter how you cut it. There is still room for an intuitive human leader to use the data plus his own judgement.

My question was mostly rhetorical. I get there is no perfect way to judge. Its more of an insight that no matter how much they have put into it, there is still no sure thing.
The other thing is we bitch about pics we missed or took based on what WE know. Imagine the bitch they do when they figure out their pick was a bust despite the effort.

It's all about improving the probability even if things are not 100%.

[frozendisc]

Jul 9, 2019 11:27:44 GMT -7 joemcrugby said:

Jul 8, 2019 20:46:55 GMT -7 xenos said:

Also from PFT, we get an inside look at the Colts with their GM Chris Ballard guest writing today. I wonder how TT's process works. How much is similar and how much is different?

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/08/chris-ballard-colts-scouting-draft-nfl-fmia-peter-king/

I'm interested in hearing frozendisc's insight regarding this point in reference to personnel discussions at the NHL level.

To me, it seems to be a no-brainer if you really want to filter through everybody's most critical insights ala cables in the diplomatic / intelligence communities.

I am not too sure what you are asking?  If you are wondering about NHL drafting decisions versus the NFL, it is a really different beast we try to conquer. The NFL is dealing with a pretty close to finished product, we are dealing with kids, 17-18 for the most part. We know they won't be ready for NHL for 4-6 years, if ever. We are essentially projecting those years down the road to what we hope will be NHL player. Plenty happens along the way though.....grow tall, heavier, add muscle, mental maturity, comfort under pressure of fans, just so much that can make the prospect NHL, or send him to beer league.

If you are wondering about the use of analytics in decision making, they do......way more than most ever would imagine. This reminds me of a time not too long ago that our draft guru Timmins was in love with a certain young goalie. He was yapping him up to me endlessly, metric this metrics that.....going to be better than Price. A few night later Berg and I were having a beer in office after most had left. He ask me why I was not in favor of this goalie, after all of the study that Timmins had done on him, all the positivity on him. I said he makes all the moves, but he doesn't have brain for the game. His talent allows him to overcome that at the lower levels, but it won't in NHL. He simply will never be NHL goalie. My point is when I talk to anyone in organization, I always counsel that use analytics certainly, but do not let them tell the only story. 

[chargerfreak]

Jul 9, 2019 11:41:37 GMT -7 totallybolted said:

Jul 9, 2019 9:45:21 GMT -7 sonorajim said:

Human element.

We aren't the same person every day. Circumstances change around and within us.

Apples & oranges.

They are drawing conclusions based on HS & college play, NFL combine results, analytics, etc.

None of which is playing for a specific NFL team vs their schedule in a specific coaching scheme.

It's an educated guess no matter how you cut it. There is still room for an intuitive human leader to use the data plus his own judgement.

My question was mostly rhetorical. I get there is no perfect way to judge. Its more of an insight that no matter how much they have put into it, there is still no sure thing.
The other thing is we bitch about pics we missed or took based on what WE know. Imagine the bitch they do when they figure out their pick was a bust despite the effort.

I just want you to write bitch four more times.

Post reported to One Post woodeye.