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Post by sonorajim on Sept 26, 2023 10:18:39 GMT -7
Totally thought going for it on 4th and 1 was correct. J Herbo goose linsley and fall forward 2 feet, game over. No idea why he pitched the ball back to Kelley. THAT looked pretty dumb.
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Post by afboltfan on Sept 26, 2023 10:48:27 GMT -7
My gut reaction was "what are you doing"? after sitting on it a bit I can see why the % was higher to win on going for it vs the punt.
Our defense gives up big plays but we are better when the field condenses.
It didn't play out like this but I think that if the Vikings were going to score it would have been faster from the 24 than from from a punt change of possession.
So if they score quick then you have a minute or so with your time outs to only need a field goal for a tie to push the game to OT and then go from there.
The play call on the other hand was bad, and I think Kellen out smarted himself by calling that run play. Go with what they haven't been able to stop all game.
It worked out. Thanks god.
We seriously got bailed out by their 2 injuries and having no timeouts, moving the ball back was devastating for them.
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Post by chargerfreak on Sept 26, 2023 10:48:40 GMT -7
Totally thought going for it on 4th and 1 was correct. J Herbo goose linsley and fall forward 2 feet, game over. No idea why he pitched the ball back to Kelley. THAT looked pretty dumb. Exactly what I said. QB sneak it !! Right after my stroke when we were going for it.
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Post by cthommes on Sept 26, 2023 12:26:05 GMT -7
My gut reaction was "what are you doing"? after sitting on it a bit I can see why the % was higher to win on going for it vs the punt.
Our defense gives up big plays but we are better when the field condenses.
It didn't play out like this but I think that if the Vikings were going to score it would have been faster from the 24 than from from a punt change of possession.
So if they score quick then you have a minute or so with your time outs to only need a field goal for a tie to push the game to OT and then go from there.
The play call on the other hand was bad, and I think Kellen out smarted himself by calling that run play. Go with what they haven't been able to stop all game.
It worked out. Thanks god.
We seriously got bailed out by their 2 injuries and having no timeouts, moving the ball back was devastating for them. Call it seriously bailed out if you will. They had no timeouts when the decision was made. Or, call it that the what-occured scenario of us failing to get the first down, and them not being able to get in the end zone is a part of the expected win percentage of the decision. Just like the hypothetical scenario of us punting and them returning the punt for a TD, and us not responding with a score is part of the expected win percentage of the decision. That's how it works. The articles I've seen give a winning edge to going for it. If there's a model out there that gives an edge to punting, I haven't seen it (but would like to if someone else has seen it!) I've said this in the past on here -- like it or hate it, Staley chooses analytics over "conventional wisdom". I don't see that changing. He does seem to be incorporating more "feel of the game" into decisions where the analytics edge is small. I would view this decision as no exception to that (e.g. small edge, more confidence in the offense to pick it up than the D to get a stop.) I have seen him make other decisions that are more conservative than I expect, perhaps due to "feel". From what I've seen, his decisions are supported by expected win percentage far more often than they're not. He does a good job with his method. The polarizing part is many hate the method. All the outcry calling him stupid, idiot, etc. ignore that... |
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Post by cthommes on Sept 26, 2023 12:30:06 GMT -7
Also. Man, I've had the personal mantra for decades that a fullback dive is a lead pipe lock to get a yard or less, every single time.
So I can't even be all that mad at Moore.
So much for that mantra...
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Post by afboltfan on Sept 26, 2023 13:18:07 GMT -7
We seriously got bailed out by their 2 injuries and having no timeouts, moving the ball back was devastating for them. Call it seriously bailed out if you will. They had no timeouts when the decision was made. Or, call it that the what-occured scenario of us failing to get the first down, and them not being able to get in the end zone is a part of the expected win percentage of the decision. Just like the hypothetical scenario of us punting and them returning the punt for a TD, and us not responding with a score is part of the expected win percentage of the decision. That's how it works. The articles I've seen give a winning edge to going for it. If there's a model out there that gives an edge to punting, I haven't seen it (but would like to if someone else has seen it!) I've said this in the past on here -- like it or hate it, Staley chooses analytics over "conventional wisdom". I don't see that changing. He does seem to be incorporating more "feel of the game" into decisions where the analytics edge is small. I would view this decision as no exception to that (e.g. small edge, more confidence in the offense to pick it up than the D to get a stop.) I have seen him make other decisions that are more conservative than I expect, perhaps due to "feel". From what I've seen, his decisions are supported by expected win percentage far more often than they're not. He does a good job with his method. The polarizing part is many hate the method. All the outcry calling him stupid, idiot, etc. ignore that... I get it, I really do... But I feel like he uses the analytics inconsistently and only in certain situations, like a magic 8 ball. I'm going to put on my tin foil hat here, but I bet he made that call as something to use as an excuse for losing if they did score. "Oh well ummm the analytics said we should go for it there so I did, our guys just didn't execute and we lost the game".... Bla bla bla Staley word vomit bla bla bla...
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Post by boltnut on Sept 26, 2023 17:24:11 GMT -7
Nutty likes crazy... but that thing is a shit-show right now. I feel like a battered wife after hanging out there for an hour. I used to like the traffic (most of it "poached" from the CMB ironically). But now it's just page upon page of utter crap, spite, and defeatists. I think Fleet is more concerned with #of members than actual content. He claims to hate the negativity of Twitter... but has become what he loathes. He came to the CMB trying to revitalize his brand... a brand that was torn apart by strife of the move to LA. I suspect that he just wants to appease the masses by letting them post whatever they want... go with the majority. But once the team starts winning, the boo-birds will fall to the wayside and he'll be left with whoever decided to weather the shit-storm... battered and bruised. As to "I only feel the people that agree with me have high football-IQ's": I'm talking about guys that barely know what type of defense we run... or guys that don't know what Moore is trying to do with his formations, blocking schemes, and pre-snap motion. And it's fine if you don't know... but at least try to have a civil conversation and learn from people who study that sort of thing. Check out "Ghost"... he's always posting great learning videos. He gets no play, often gets criticized and ignored. There are plenty of guys over there that know more than me about football.... but the loonies are leading the over-simplified narrative. Kudos to your War Chicken avatar... way better than promoting your favorite team's biggest weakness. If it's a reverse mojo thing... then, my apologies. It's good to be back! I had a pleasurable time posting on the OGDT yesterday (MoeKid)... something I haven't been able to stomach for nearly a year over @tpb. , but are you back here because you were removed from the PB forum and now your bitter? I think context and honesty goes far as we have a small group here and I think this site with the PB can coexist without high school shennanigans. I'm not sure if you are truly looking for context and honesty... or if you are just looking to insult me. But I can give you context and honesty. Context: There was a bitter element that took over TPB right around the time many Chargers' players started getting hurt, en mass, last year. "Telesco was stupid"... "Staley is a failure"... "This team will never win a Super Bowl"... "Keenan has lost a step, is always injured, and needs to be traded/cut"... "Bosa needs to be traded/cut"... on and on and on... I was in the minority on most of these debates. I was rewarded with insults to my intelligence and called names. "Pollyanna Apologist" was thrown around a lot. At first I just ignored it. Another poster (DMac) got removed from the forum because he returned insults and started name-calling back. We dubbed them the "Negative Nancies" and "Debbie Downers". Maybe you can interpret that as "High School Shenanigans". When DMac was allowed to come back, he was a shell of his former self. Dude had to pussy-foot around while the others continued to name-call. I remained convinced that if we got a few guys back, we'd make the playoffs. I got shellacked for that one. After the playoff loss to the Jags... the place went attack-dog all over again. I suggested that "Chargering" wasn't really a thing. Just because a couple of click-bait mongers liked to use the term, you had to look at the totality of "choking"... that every team had those moments. I got shellacked again. I pointed out that the Chiefs had given up a 28 point lead in the playoffs on one occasion... and had been destroyed by the Bucs in the SB after having costly injuries to some of their starters. That bought me about 1 week of peace. The whole off-season was about how poorly the team would be in 2023. A couple dudes in the "Prediction Thread" predicted 4-13. It was all very low-football IQ driven stuff... see 1st paragraph for reference. None of them were moved by Kellen Moore's acquisition... even though they had spent the previous season bitching about Lombardi... They were un-moveable and spitting fire. Two losses into the season... and the whole forum was caving in on itself. Name calling, political rants... A lot of it has been deleted by mods... a lot of it still exists if you have the patience to sift through the endless pages of insults. Amidst all of this chaos, I get warned for suggesting that maybe some of these guys don't know much about football (comparatively mild stuff). When I complain about the inequity (name-calling... political stuff)... I get banned. That's when I start coming over here. I'm over here for several days before I notice that I've been un-banned (along with a public scolding). Of course the minority (and high football IQ guys) are still getting ravaged over there. I mention that I've been over at this site... and the discourse is much more civil... and BAM! I'm out again. Accusations of poaching are leveled at me. Another public scolding ensues and... my favorite... If I wish to return, I must apologize on twitter (of which, I do not have an account) if I want to be reinstated. Again, of which I have no desire to do either. There's your context and honesty... if that is really what you wanted. My intent was not to rant... hopefully most of you simply skimmed or ignored altogether... I really don't wish to revisit this topic. I'm just here to talk football.
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Post by lazylightning on Sept 26, 2023 17:52:17 GMT -7
So I'm not going to start stirring up forum drama, yada Yada Yada I'm not sure if you are truly looking for context and honesty... or Yada Yada yada I'm just here to talk football. can we get back to football please.
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Post by boltnut on Sept 26, 2023 17:59:22 GMT -7
Totally thought going for it on 4th and 1 was correct. J Herbo goose linsley and fall forward 2 feet, game over. No idea why he pitched the ball back to Kelley. THAT looked pretty dumb. The numbers seemed to indicate that it was the correct call. The execution left something to be desired, tho.
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Post by boltnut on Sept 26, 2023 18:00:19 GMT -7
I'm not sure if you are truly looking for context and honesty... or Yada Yada yada I'm just here to talk football. can we get back to football please. 100%
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Post by totallybolted on Sept 26, 2023 18:00:48 GMT -7
So I'm not going to start stirring up forum drama, but are you back here because you were removed from the PB forum and now your bitter? I think context and honesty goes far as we have a small group here and I think this site with the PB can coexist without high school shennanigans. I'm not sure if you are truly looking for context and honesty... or if you are just looking to insult me. But I can give you context and honesty. Context: There was a bitter element that took over TPB right around the time many Chargers' players started getting hurt, en mass, last year. "Telesco was stupid"... "Staley is a failure"... "This team will never win a Super Bowl"... "Keenan has lost a step, is always injured, and needs to be traded/cut"... "Bosa needs to be traded/cut"... on and on and on... I was in the minority on most of these debates. I was rewarded with insults to my intelligence and called names. "Pollyanna Apologist" was thrown around a lot. At first I just ignored it. Another poster (DMac) got removed from the forum because he returned insults and started name-calling back. We dubbed them the "Negative Nancies" and "Debbie Downers". Maybe you can interpret that as "High School Shenanigans". When DMac was allowed to come back, he was a shell of his former self. Dude had to pussy-foot around while the others continued to name-call. I remained convinced that if we got a few guys back, we'd make the playoffs. I got shellacked for that one. After the playoff loss to the Jags... the place went attack-dog all over again. I suggested that "Chargering" wasn't really a thing. Just because a couple of click-bait mongers liked to use the term, you had to look at the totality of "choking"... that every team had those moments. I got shellacked again. I pointed out that the Chiefs had given up a 28 point lead in the playoffs on one occasion... and had been destroyed by the Bucs in the SB after having costly injuries to some of their starters. That bought me about 1 week of peace. The whole off-season was about how poorly the team would be in 2023. A couple dudes in the "Prediction Thread" predicted 4-13. It was all very low-football IQ driven stuff... see 1st paragraph for reference. None of them were moved by Kellen Moore's acquisition... even though they had spent the previous season bitching about Lombardi... They were un-moveable and spitting fire. Two losses into the season... and the whole forum was caving in on itself. Name calling, political rants... A lot of it has been deleted by mods... a lot of it still exists if you have the patience to sift through the endless pages of insults. Amidst all of this chaos, I get warned for suggesting that maybe some of these guys don't know much about football (comparatively mild stuff). When I complain about the inequity (name-calling... political stuff)... I get banned. That's when I start coming over here. I'm over here for several days before I notice that I've been un-banned (along with a public scolding). Of course the minority (and high football IQ guys) are still getting ravaged over there. I mention that I've been over at this site... and the discourse is much more civil... and BAM! I'm out again. Accusations of poaching are leveled at me. Another public scolding ensues and... my favorite... If I wish to return, I must apologize on twitter (of which, I do not have an account) if I want to be reinstated. Again, of which I have no desire to do either. There's your context and honesty... if that is really what you wanted. My intent was not to rant... hopefully most of you simply skimmed or ignored altogether... I really don't wish to revisit this topic. I'm just here to talk football. Happy your here. We allow more than when we started, but never allow the flat out vitriol. I'm sorry your experience on the other board went south. Their loss. I'm concerned a bit about the run game. it can't be all Kelly or Spiller. I figured before the season that our OL was going to be better than it has in years. Not seeing it particularly with run blocking. It's concerning when you can't eat 2 minutes off the clock when the game is on the line.
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Post by boltnut on Sept 26, 2023 18:04:51 GMT -7
I thought that I heard it was Kellen Moore's decision to go for it. If that is true, then I assume he also made the call to hand it to Kelley.
The only thing I'm 100% sure of... no one instructed Parham to miss the block. Maybe McKitty will get that duty next time...?
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Post by afboltfan on Sept 26, 2023 18:05:44 GMT -7
So I'm not going to start stirring up forum drama, but are you back here because you were removed from the PB forum and now your bitter? I think context and honesty goes far as we have a small group here and I think this site with the PB can coexist without high school shennanigans. I'm not sure if you are truly looking for context and honesty... or if you are just looking to insult me. But I can give you context and honesty. Context: There was a bitter element that took over TPB right around the time many Chargers' players started getting hurt, en mass, last year. "Telesco was stupid"... "Staley is a failure"... "This team will never win a Super Bowl"... "Keenan has lost a step, is always injured, and needs to be traded/cut"... "Bosa needs to be traded/cut"... on and on and on... I was in the minority on most of these debates. I was rewarded with insults to my intelligence and called names. "Pollyanna Apologist" was thrown around a lot. At first I just ignored it. Another poster (DMac) got removed from the forum because he returned insults and started name-calling back. We dubbed them the "Negative Nancies" and "Debbie Downers". Maybe you can interpret that as "High School Shenanigans". When DMac was allowed to come back, he was a shell of his former self. Dude had to pussy-foot around while the others continued to name-call. I remained convinced that if we got a few guys back, we'd make the playoffs. I got shellacked for that one. After the playoff loss to the Jags... the place went attack-dog all over again. I suggested that "Chargering" wasn't really a thing. Just because a couple of click-bait mongers liked to use the term, you had to look at the totality of "choking"... that every team had those moments. I got shellacked again. I pointed out that the Chiefs had given up a 28 point lead in the playoffs on one occasion... and had been destroyed by the Bucs in the SB after having costly injuries to some of their starters. That bought me about 1 week of peace. The whole off-season was about how poorly the team would be in 2023. A couple dudes in the "Prediction Thread" predicted 4-13. It was all very low-football IQ driven stuff... see 1st paragraph for reference. None of them were moved by Kellen Moore's acquisition... even though they had spent the previous season bitching about Lombardi... They were un-moveable and spitting fire. Two losses into the season... and the whole forum was caving in on itself. Name calling, political rants... A lot of it has been deleted by mods... a lot of it still exists if you have the patience to sift through the endless pages of insults. Amidst all of this chaos, I get warned for suggesting that maybe some of these guys don't know much about football (comparatively mild stuff). When I complain about the inequity (name-calling... political stuff)... I get banned. That's when I start coming over here. I'm over here for several days before I notice that I've been un-banned (along with a public scolding). Of course the minority (and high football IQ guys) are still getting ravaged over there. I mention that I've been over at this site... and the discourse is much more civil... and BAM! I'm out again. Accusations of poaching are leveled at me. Another public scolding ensues and... my favorite... If I wish to return, I must apologize on twitter (of which, I do not have an account) if I want to be reinstated. Again, of which I have no desire to do either. There's your context and honesty... if that is really what you wanted. My intent was not to rant... hopefully most of you simply skimmed or ignored altogether... I really don't wish to revisit this topic. I'm just here to talk football. Alot of that happens here as well, its called a public forum about football, nonetheless aggressive manbaby antics comes with the territory (especially if we lose). I'd suggest not taking it so personal and literal, but you do you.
Again, welcome back and yes lets talk football.
I'll try to raise my football IQ for you...
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Post by NYBOLTFAN1 on Sept 26, 2023 18:30:48 GMT -7
Hi IQ and football should never be in the same sentence.
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Post by boltnut on Sept 26, 2023 18:37:13 GMT -7
I'm not sure if you are truly looking for context and honesty... or if you are just looking to insult me. But I can give you context and honesty. Context: There was a bitter element that took over TPB right around the time many Chargers' players started getting hurt, en mass, last year. "Telesco was stupid"... "Staley is a failure"... "This team will never win a Super Bowl"... "Keenan has lost a step, is always injured, and needs to be traded/cut"... "Bosa needs to be traded/cut"... on and on and on... I was in the minority on most of these debates. I was rewarded with insults to my intelligence and called names. "Pollyanna Apologist" was thrown around a lot. At first I just ignored it. Another poster (DMac) got removed from the forum because he returned insults and started name-calling back. We dubbed them the "Negative Nancies" and "Debbie Downers". Maybe you can interpret that as "High School Shenanigans". When DMac was allowed to come back, he was a shell of his former self. Dude had to pussy-foot around while the others continued to name-call. I remained convinced that if we got a few guys back, we'd make the playoffs. I got shellacked for that one. After the playoff loss to the Jags... the place went attack-dog all over again. I suggested that "Chargering" wasn't really a thing. Just because a couple of click-bait mongers liked to use the term, you had to look at the totality of "choking"... that every team had those moments. I got shellacked again. I pointed out that the Chiefs had given up a 28 point lead in the playoffs on one occasion... and had been destroyed by the Bucs in the SB after having costly injuries to some of their starters. That bought me about 1 week of peace. The whole off-season was about how poorly the team would be in 2023. A couple dudes in the "Prediction Thread" predicted 4-13. It was all very low-football IQ driven stuff... see 1st paragraph for reference. None of them were moved by Kellen Moore's acquisition... even though they had spent the previous season bitching about Lombardi... They were un-moveable and spitting fire. Two losses into the season... and the whole forum was caving in on itself. Name calling, political rants... A lot of it has been deleted by mods... a lot of it still exists if you have the patience to sift through the endless pages of insults. Amidst all of this chaos, I get warned for suggesting that maybe some of these guys don't know much about football (comparatively mild stuff). When I complain about the inequity (name-calling... political stuff)... I get banned. That's when I start coming over here. I'm over here for several days before I notice that I've been un-banned (along with a public scolding). Of course the minority (and high football IQ guys) are still getting ravaged over there. I mention that I've been over at this site... and the discourse is much more civil... and BAM! I'm out again. Accusations of poaching are leveled at me. Another public scolding ensues and... my favorite... If I wish to return, I must apologize on twitter (of which, I do not have an account) if I want to be reinstated. Again, of which I have no desire to do either. There's your context and honesty... if that is really what you wanted. My intent was not to rant... hopefully most of you simply skimmed or ignored altogether... I really don't wish to revisit this topic. I'm just here to talk football. Happy your here. We allow more than when we started, but never allow the flat out vitriol. I'm sorry your experience on the other board went south. Their loss. I'm concerned a bit about the run game. it can't be all Kelly or Spiller. I figured before the season that our OL was going to be better than it has in years. Not seeing it particularly with run blocking. It's concerning when you can't eat 2 minutes off the clock when the game is on the line. Glad to be here! I was a regular on the CMB. The run game looked awful on Sunday... and wasn't much better against the Titans the week before. Moore's run game is based off of taking defenders out of the box... through formations, motion and shifts. The Vikings responded by run blitzing... they put more in the box. Chargers responded by passing the ball. 47 passes vs 13 designed runs. Against the Titans it was 41 passes vs 20 designed runs. The Dolphins chose to defend the pass... keeping their safeties back. We ran the ball 40 times for 233 yards. I understand that Ekeler did a lot of the damage vs the Dolphins (I don't deny losing him is a big deal). But Kelley got 91 rushing yards (5.7 ypc) too. I think a lot of what happens on defense (and the scheme) dictates how successful we are at running the ball.
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