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Post by afboltfan on Jan 3, 2020 14:58:36 GMT -7
We are in accord, LL. First, I'd rather have Rivers back (for two more years!) than any of the QBs we could draft at 6 (injury.inconsistency, etc.). And not drafting a QB (in any round) allows us to take BPA, which hopefully would include a few early O-line selections! But the non-QBs we could take at 6 are very enticing, even to a non-draftnik like me. I think the DT from Auburn is a stud, the CB from Ohio State, the OT/G from Iowa, the huge tackle from Alabama, the WR from Alabama, a few of the Clemson defenders- any of these guys would improve our team right away and give a Rivers-led team a chance.As a Chargers fan, if we do take a QB (likely Herbert, slight chance of Tua) I'd support him 110% but neither inspires me that we'd be set for the future. Of course I could be wrong but playing the odds tells me go with PR at least one more year! I would do this under one condition.
You would have to give me the Freak All In Mode. I mean free agent the hell out of talent, and that Number 6 pick cannot miss. You know Derwin James type of first round, versus whatever the hell Tillery is in the first round...........................
REACT TO MY DESTRUCTION OF FIRST ROUND TILLERY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PS FREE AGENCY CANNOT CONSIST OF OVERPAYING A BACK UP QB WHEN YOUR STARTER IS DOING GODDAMN 225 STRAIGHT STARTS IN A ROW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that's not my All In formula. At all. Not even close. Fight for LA.
Who is Tillery???
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Post by frozendisc on Jan 3, 2020 17:52:16 GMT -7
I would do this under one condition.
You would have to give me the Freak All In Mode. I mean free agent the hell out of talent, and that Number 6 pick cannot miss. You know Derwin James type of first round, versus whatever the hell Tillery is in the first round...........................
REACT TO MY DESTRUCTION OF FIRST ROUND TILLERY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PS FREE AGENCY CANNOT CONSIST OF OVERPAYING A BACK UP QB WHEN YOUR STARTER IS DOING GODDAMN 225 STRAIGHT STARTS IN A ROW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
that's not my All In formula. At all. Not even close. Fight for LA.
Who is Tillery??? What is Tillery, Who was taken in round 2.......
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Post by headtrip on Jan 3, 2020 19:27:54 GMT -7
Ummmmmmmmmm, simply put--------no. Not sure how to spell this out for you exactly. For better or worse, lately I have been hitting short posts, and then responding to replies as a follow up/expansion. My fertile mind gets bored quickly with details. In fact it may just be easier to command everyone to believe me, rather than typing blah blah crap. Ah, but try I must I suppose.................. There is rarely a sure thing. But try to look at it as percentages of success. Burrow is a 90% chance of success (just making up numbers here to show my point). Herbert is an 83% chance. Tua is 83% chance (plus or minus his injury/recovery) . These are first round projections. Once you leave the first round, the percentages take a nose dive. John Armslinger is projected in the second round FOR A REASON. Remember my words there. THERE ARE REASONS.
I can see guys typing responses like Farve and Brees were second round picks. What I am telling you has absolutely nothing to do with that. Of course the other rounds have hit on good QB's in history. But they are way further and far apart. You are a GM. Are you literally going to put your career on the line for less than a first rounder at QB ?? No. Of course you aren't. IF it is all high risk, you have to TRY and mitigate that risk any way you can. You will play the higher percentages of first round grades. THAT is what GM's do. You know where to send my paychecks. Agree there is politics, but I think the risk is too high. I wonder how many first round draft pick QB are starting right now? Well a quick check if you include those who are hurt but would be starting...~16. That 50% of the teams.. So that alone tells you your chances of landing a starter at QB are around 50%. Actually less. Mind you, you are paying them more too. QB hell = Cap hell with a poor QB draftee Fact is the majority of high 1st round QB picks place the teams picking high again with cap issues over the next few years. Most first rounders are back ups. In fact, I think there may be a starter or 2 now would be back ups, if the starter wasn't hurt. I get there are players that the odds of success are a lot higher. Luck was clearly one. So perhaps I should say "Most times not picking one in the first is the better move." The other way to interpret that data is that only half the league starts a QB that was selected in rounds 2-7 or signed as an undrafted free agent. That doesn’t take into account the difference between picking one at 6 vs 32 either. That’s compelling evidence to take a swing at one if you have the need and the opportunity. In the case of the Chargers, I don’t trust them to correctly evaluate the talent, but I do trust teams picking 1-5 to **** up and let the best QB fall to 6. Silver lining. |
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Post by frozendisc on Jan 3, 2020 19:31:35 GMT -7
Agree there is politics, but I think the risk is too high. I wonder how many first round draft pick QB are starting right now? Well a quick check if you include those who are hurt but would be starting...~16. That 50% of the teams.. So that alone tells you your chances of landing a starter at QB are around 50%. Actually less. Mind you, you are paying them more too. QB hell = Cap hell with a poor QB draftee Fact is the majority of high 1st round QB picks place the teams picking high again with cap issues over the next few years. Most first rounders are back ups. In fact, I think there may be a starter or 2 now would be back ups, if the starter wasn't hurt. I get there are players that the odds of success are a lot higher. Luck was clearly one. So perhaps I should say "Most times not picking one in the first is the better move." The other way to interpret that data is that only half the league starts a QB that was selected in rounds 2-7 or signed as an undrafted free agent. That doesn’t take into account the difference between picking one at 6 vs 32 either. That’s compelling evidence to take a swing at one if you have the need and the opportunity. In the case of the Chargers, I don’t trust them to correctly evaluate the talent, but I do trust teams picking 1-5 to **** up and let the best QB fall to 6. Silver lining. To further your analogy.....if you like the pitch.
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Post by totallybolted on Jan 3, 2020 19:51:27 GMT -7
Agree there is politics, but I think the risk is too high. I wonder how many first round draft pick QB are starting right now? Well a quick check if you include those who are hurt but would be starting...~16. That 50% of the teams.. So that alone tells you your chances of landing a starter at QB are around 50%. Actually less. Mind you, you are paying them more too. QB hell = Cap hell with a poor QB draftee Fact is the majority of high 1st round QB picks place the teams picking high again with cap issues over the next few years. Most first rounders are back ups. In fact, I think there may be a starter or 2 now would be back ups, if the starter wasn't hurt. I get there are players that the odds of success are a lot higher. Luck was clearly one. So perhaps I should say "Most times not picking one in the first is the better move." The other way to interpret that data is that only half the league starts a QB that was selected in rounds 2-7 or signed as an undrafted free agent. That doesn’t take into account the difference between picking one at 6 vs 32 either. That’s compelling evidence to take a swing at one if you have the need and the opportunity. In the case of the Chargers, I don’t trust them to correctly evaluate the talent, but I do trust teams picking 1-5 to **** up and let the best QB fall to 6. Silver lining. LOL I can buy that view. Plus my research was pretty limited. Though I do not think I am alone, as I did see a few bits that talked about the poor odds of landing a franchise QB. Admittedly, there are a lot of folks who see the QB's in this draft as low risk. I want to hit a grand slam with that pick. But the risk is very high. I did see one draft that had Tua going like round 2. But I think he stays in school if that is the going consensus.
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Post by afboltfan on Jan 3, 2020 19:55:49 GMT -7
As long as we don't draft the next EJ Manuel with number 6, I "think" TT will be fine.
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Post by frozendisc on Jan 3, 2020 20:24:51 GMT -7
The other way to interpret that data is that only half the league starts a QB that was selected in rounds 2-7 or signed as an undrafted free agent. That doesn’t take into account the difference between picking one at 6 vs 32 either. That’s compelling evidence to take a swing at one if you have the need and the opportunity. In the case of the Chargers, I don’t trust them to correctly evaluate the talent, but I do trust teams picking 1-5 to **** up and let the best QB fall to 6. Silver lining. LOL I can buy that view. Plus my research was pretty limited. Though I do not think I am alone, as I did see a few bits that talked about the poor odds of landing a franchise QB. Admittedly, there are a lot of folks who see the QB's in this draft as low risk. I want to hit a grand slam with that pick. But the risk is very high. I did see one draft that had Tua going like round 2. But I think he stays in school if that is the going consensus. I want Herbert, but I believe as you do, Tua stays in school. If Tua does, then Miami takes Herbert, and Bolts go BPA......I like the OT's, but WR, CB, Edge.....on and on...plenty of really good options.
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Post by headtrip on Jan 3, 2020 20:27:17 GMT -7
The other way to interpret that data is that only half the league starts a QB that was selected in rounds 2-7 or signed as an undrafted free agent. That doesn’t take into account the difference between picking one at 6 vs 32 either. That’s compelling evidence to take a swing at one if you have the need and the opportunity. In the case of the Chargers, I don’t trust them to correctly evaluate the talent, but I do trust teams picking 1-5 to **** up and let the best QB fall to 6. Silver lining. LOL I can buy that view. Plus my research was pretty limited. Though I do not think I am alone, as I did see a few bits that talked about the poor odds of landing a franchise QB. Admittedly, there are a lot of folks who see the QB's in this draft as low risk. I want to hit a grand slam with that pick. But the risk is very high. I did see one draft that had Tua going like round 2. But I think he stays in school if that is the going consensus. I think we’ll know how interested the bolts are well before the draft. Either Rivers will be a Charger and we won’t take a QB at 6 or he won’t be and we will. Drafting one is much riskier IMO but that’s the cost of a long term franchise QB.
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Post by frozendisc on Jan 3, 2020 20:27:51 GMT -7
As long as we don't draft the next EJ Manuel with number 6, I "think" TT will be fine. TT's style is taking a 'can't miss' player in rd 1, I don't see him going QB with all the more talented sure thing options. As much as I want OT, I see WR or CB more likely at this early time.
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Post by frozendisc on Jan 3, 2020 20:33:11 GMT -7
LOL I can buy that view. Plus my research was pretty limited. Though I do not think I am alone, as I did see a few bits that talked about the poor odds of landing a franchise QB. Admittedly, there are a lot of folks who see the QB's in this draft as low risk. I want to hit a grand slam with that pick. But the risk is very high. I did see one draft that had Tua going like round 2. But I think he stays in school if that is the going consensus. I think we’ll know how interested the bolts are well before the draft. Either Rivers will be a Charger and we won’t take a QB at 6 or he won’t be and we will. Drafting one is much riskier IMO but that’s the cost of a long term franchise QB. I would switch out the bold for 'might take'..... They could easily decide to just go with Taylor as their starter, which would free them up to draft as they wanted. The rumor smokescreens that will be getting put out there this draft should be quite interesting.
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Post by headtrip on Jan 3, 2020 21:01:46 GMT -7
I think we’ll know how interested the bolts are well before the draft. Either Rivers will be a Charger and we won’t take a QB at 6 or he won’t be and we will. Drafting one is much riskier IMO but that’s the cost of a long term franchise QB. I would switch out the bold for 'might take'..... They could easily decide to just go with Taylor as their starter, which would free them up to draft as they wanted. The rumor smokescreens that will be getting put out there this draft should be quite interesting. I’d like that move quite a bit. A one year audition for Tyrod, whose mobility would be huge for this offense, and a blue chip prospect elsewhere would be smart. Either Tyrod plays well and earns a long term deal or he tanks and we’re having the same conversation next year. I don’t think Telesco can afford another 5 win season unless he spends pick 6 on a QB though.
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Post by totallybolted on Jan 3, 2020 21:37:32 GMT -7
I would switch out the bold for 'might take'..... They could easily decide to just go with Taylor as their starter, which would free them up to draft as they wanted. The rumor smokescreens that will be getting put out there this draft should be quite interesting. I’d like that move quite a bit. A one year audition for Tyrod, whose mobility would be huge for this offense, and a blue chip prospect elsewhere would be smart. Either Tyrod plays well and earns a long term deal or he tanks and we’re having the same conversation next year. I don’t think Telesco can afford another 5 win season unless he spends pick 6 on a QB though. there is colin Kapernick... He is available. imjustsayin
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Post by headtrip on Jan 3, 2020 22:51:59 GMT -7
I’d like that move quite a bit. A one year audition for Tyrod, whose mobility would be huge for this offense, and a blue chip prospect elsewhere would be smart. Either Tyrod plays well and earns a long term deal or he tanks and we’re having the same conversation next year. I don’t think Telesco can afford another 5 win season unless he spends pick 6 on a QB though. there is colin Kapernick... He is available. imjustsayin I kneel in protest of the insinuation. |
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Post by chargerfreak on Jan 4, 2020 3:00:45 GMT -7
Agree there is politics, but I think the risk is too high. I wonder how many first round draft pick QB are starting right now? Well a quick check if you include those who are hurt but would be starting...~16. That 50% of the teams.. So that alone tells you your chances of landing a starter at QB are around 50%. Actually less. Mind you, you are paying them more too. QB hell = Cap hell with a poor QB draftee Fact is the majority of high 1st round QB picks place the teams picking high again with cap issues over the next few years. Most first rounders are back ups. In fact, I think there may be a starter or 2 now would be back ups, if the starter wasn't hurt. I get there are players that the odds of success are a lot higher. Luck was clearly one. So perhaps I should say "Most times not picking one in the first is the better move." I posted. You can choose to doubt me.
Also, teams COVET and crave 1st round QB's for 5th year team option rookie contracts.
Doubting is not wise.
I think I found more evidence to support my side of the discussion TB. Rivers has had a long career. The Chargers have drafted non-first round QB's in that time. How many of them are starters in the NFL ? Who was the latest one ? Stick ? Yeah, THATS not happening. kneel
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Post by chargerfreak on Jan 4, 2020 3:22:27 GMT -7
Agree there is politics, but I think the risk is too high. I wonder how many first round draft pick QB are starting right now? Well a quick check if you include those who are hurt but would be starting...~16. That 50% of the teams.. So that alone tells you your chances of landing a starter at QB are around 50%. Actually less. Mind you, you are paying them more too. QB hell = Cap hell with a poor QB draftee Fact is the majority of high 1st round QB picks place the teams picking high again with cap issues over the next few years. Most first rounders are back ups. In fact, I think there may be a starter or 2 now would be back ups, if the starter wasn't hurt. I get there are players that the odds of success are a lot higher. Luck was clearly one. So perhaps I should say "Most times not picking one in the first is the better move." That doesn’t take into account the difference between picking one at 6 vs 32 either. That’s compelling evidence to take a swing at one if you have the need and the opportunity. In the case of the Chargers, I don’t trust them to correctly evaluate the talent, but I do trust teams picking 1-5 to **** up and let the best QB fall to 6. Silver lining. Really ? 50% are first rounders, and the rest come out of the next 6 rounds and the entire UDFA signings combined........................................... Huh. Who would have thought ? I WONDER WHY THAT IS ??Maybe Stick has a brother at North Dakota State we can get in the 5th and try to make him our new Franchise QB. Oh wait. I forgot my other favorite. Tom Brady was a late round draft pick. One guy, 20 freaking fracking years ago. Wait for the 6th round. Even better. Its Appoved. Its All Freak Approved. Wow.
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